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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

LAC
55.2%
GB
44.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Jordan Love (GB) +0.000 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.188 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25
–
GB 23
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

LAC

Gerald Everett TE Out Chest
J.T. Woods S Out Illness
Isaiah Spiller RB Questionable Illness
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Guyton WR Questionable Groin

GB

Rudy Ford S Doubtful Biceps
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Shoulder
Rashan Gary LB Questionable Shoulder
Quay Walker LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
GB 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:24 FG LAC (1:24) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – GB 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 11-J.Reed right end for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – GB 6
  • Q2 12:25 TD LAC (12:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 84-S.Smartt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – GB 7
  • Q2 00:11 FG GB (:11) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. LAC 10 – GB 10
  • Q3 10:47 FG LAC (10:47) 11-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 13 – GB 10
  • Q3 00:08 TD GB (:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – GB 16
  • Q4 05:29 TD LAC (5:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – GB 16
  • Q4 02:38 TD GB (2:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – GB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 31%

    (11:09) 10-J.Love pass short left to 88-L.Musgrave to GB 49 for -1 yards (32-A.Gilman).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 49%

    (9:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 89-D.Parham.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to LAC 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:24) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 25%

    (6:01) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to GB 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Reed to GB 19 for 7 yards (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (:11) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (10:47) 11-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 33%

    (4:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to LAC 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:34) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to GB 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-K.Nixon MUFFS catch, touched at GB 24, and recovers at GB 29. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 30 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 19 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to LAC 31, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Davis to LAC 37 for 6 yards (39-Z.Anderson).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 20 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:00) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to GB 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-K.Nixon to GB 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 25%

    (1:35) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 84-S.Smartt (97-K.Clark).