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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to LAC 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.25 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model