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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 10-J.Love pass short left to 88-L.Musgrave to GB 49 for -1 yards (32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.17 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model