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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to GB 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-K.Nixon MUFFS catch, touched at GB 24, and recovers at GB 29. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 30 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP