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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 84-S.Smartt (97-K.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.35 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -0.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model