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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 89-D.Parham.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model