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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to GB 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-K.Nixon to GB 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model