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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CHI
30.1%
DET
69.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.165 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.179 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Justin Fields in place of Tyson Bagent)
  • DET offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than DET

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CHI

Noah Sewell LB Out Knee
Jack Sanborn LB Questionable Ankle
Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Knee
D'Onta Foreman RB Questionable Ankle

DET

Isaiah Buggs DT Out Illness
Jonah Jackson G Out Wrist
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 26
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 TD CHI (9:26) (Shotgun) 21-D.Foreman right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 09:28 TD DET (9:28) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 26-J.Gibbs left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DET 6
  • Q2 01:51 FG CHI (1:51) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 10 – DET 7
  • Q2 00:16 TD DET (:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – DET 13
  • Q3 06:46 FG CHI (6:46) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 13 – DET 14
  • Q3 04:48 TD CHI (4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 19 – DET 14
  • Q4 14:15 FG CHI (14:15) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 23 – DET 14
  • Q4 04:20 FG CHI (4:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 26 – DET 14
  • Q4 03:06 TD DET (3:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 26 – DET 20
  • Q4 00:31 TD DET (:31) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 26 – DET 27
  • Q4 00:29 SAF DET (:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 15 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson) [97-A.Hutchinson], touched at CHI 15, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. CHI 26 – DET 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 53%

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at DET 38 for 5 yards.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 16 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%

    (1:18) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 78%

    (5:02) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to DET 27 for 5 yards (55-D.Barnes).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (1:51) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 31%

    (13:09) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%

    (6:46) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (14:15) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:13) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to CHI 18, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 13 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). PENALTY on CHI-39-J.Blackwell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CHI 18.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (4:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:44) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to DET 27, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.