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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 32

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to DET 27 for 5 yards (55-D.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.58 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model