4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 43

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at DET 38 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.67 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model