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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 35

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model