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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 44

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.96 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model