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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 21

Chicago Bears 23 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.59 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model