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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 23

Chicago Bears 20 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP