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Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Thursday 2023-11-09 · 20:15 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

CAR
35.4%
CHI
64.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Tyson Bagent (CHI) -0.210 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.254 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CAR

Brian Burns LB Out Concussion
C.J. Henderson CB Out Concussion
Laviska Shenault WR Out Ankle
Stephen Sullivan TE Out Shoulder
D.J. Chark WR Doubtful Elbow
Vonn Bell S Questionable Quadricep
Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Back
Xavier Woods S Questionable Thigh

CHI

Khari Blasingame FB Out Concussion
Nate Davis G Out Ankle
Tremaine Edmunds LB Out Knee
Terell Smith CB Out Illness
Justin Fields QB Doubtful right Thumb
Josh Blackwell CB Questionable Hamstring
Khalil Herbert RB Questionable Ankle
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 13
–
CHI 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:05 TD CAR (6:05) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to CAR 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – CHI 0
  • Q1 02:34 FG CHI (2:34) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CAR 7 – CHI 3
  • Q2 13:36 FG CAR (13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 10 – CHI 3
  • Q2 03:10 FG CHI (3:10) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CAR 10 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CAR 10 – CHI 9
  • Q3 06:38 TD CHI (6:38) (Shotgun) 21-D.Foreman right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – CHI 15
  • Q4 11:10 FG CAR (11:10) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 13 – CHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:32) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (9:15) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CHI 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:05) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to CAR 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 65%

    (2:34) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 24%

    (9:25) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 9.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CHI 42, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 47 for 5 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 65%

    (5:18) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 13-T.Scott to CAR 21 for 15 yards (32-D.Bootle).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (3:10) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 24%

    (1:19) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to CHI 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:04) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to CHI 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:38) 16-T.Gill punts 62 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 9 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CAR 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-T.Taylor to CAR 38 for 7 yards (41-M.Farley).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 41%

    (4:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to CHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:00) 16-T.Gill punts 26 yards to CHI 40, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-48-P.Scales.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 65%

    (13:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble to CHI 25 for 11 yards (6-K.Gordon). Penalty on CHI-33-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (11:10) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 44%

    (7:17) 16-T.Gill punts 35 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:20) 9-B.Young scrambles right end pushed ob at CAR 20 for 2 yards (9-J.Brisker).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders ran ob at CHI 41 for 13 yards (53-T.Edwards).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 52%

    (1:40) 4-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.