Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 9

(14:04) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to CHI 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model