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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 71

Chicago Bears 9 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 16-T.Gill punts 62 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 9 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model