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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 13 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 9-B.Young scrambles right end pushed ob at CAR 20 for 2 yards (9-J.Brisker).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 40, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model