4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CHI 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model