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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 36

Chicago Bears 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 13-T.Scott to CAR 21 for 15 yards (32-D.Bootle).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model