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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 96

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CAR 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-T.Taylor to CAR 38 for 7 yards (41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -4.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 96, worth -6.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model