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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread 7.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NE
23.3%
MIA
76.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.144 vs Mac Jones (NE) -0.096 EPA/dropback
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

NE 18
–
MIA 26
Projected margin: MIA by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NE

Calvin Anderson T Out Illness
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Ankle
Josh Uche LB Questionable Ankle
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Shoulder
Keion White DE Questionable Concussion
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Shoulder

MIA

River Cracraft WR Questionable Shoulder
Jevon Holland S Questionable Concussion
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Groin
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Foot
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Ankle
Nik Needham CB Questionable Achilles
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Knee
Cam Smith CB Questionable Foot
Connor Williams C Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 17
–
MIA 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:39 TD NE (3:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 00:28 TD MIA (:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 06:14 TD MIA (6:14) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – MIA 13
  • Q2 00:29 FG MIA (:29) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NE 7 – MIA 17
  • Q3 12:49 FG NE (12:49) 37-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 10 – MIA 17
  • Q3 07:38 TD MIA (7:38) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – MIA 23
  • Q4 08:33 TD NE (8:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 7-J.Smith-Schuster for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – MIA 24
  • Q4 02:49 TD MIA (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 17 – MIA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to MIA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at MIA 36 for 12 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to NE 38 for 17 yards (27-M.Bryant).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (10:01) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 42%

    (11:14) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to NE 34 for 8 yards (23-K.Dugger; 48-Ja.Tavai).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%

    (7:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to NE 6 for 2 yards (27-M.Bryant). NE-27-M.Bryant was injured during the play.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (:29) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (12:49) 37-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 17%

    (6:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NE 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:46) 17-B.Baringer punts 63 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:01) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to NE 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-30-A.Ingold.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 7-J.Smith-Schuster for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Douglas (29-B.Jones) [92-Z.Sieler]. MIA-29-B.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on NE-7-J.Smith-Schuster, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NE 21.