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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 20

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 37-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model