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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 53

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model