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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:29) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model