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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 24 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NE 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model