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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to NE 34 for 8 yards (23-K.Dugger; 48-Ja.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model