Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 24 – New England Patriots 10

(14:01) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to NE 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-30-A.Ingold.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.28 EP
55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model