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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIN
47.7%
GB
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jordan Love (GB): -0.021 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIN

Kene Nwangwu RB Out Illness
Brian Asamoah LB Out Ankle
Ezra Cleveland G Questionable Foot
Jalen Nailor WR Questionable Hamstring

GB

Josh Myers C Questionable Ankle
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Back
De'Vondre Campbell LB Questionable Ankle
Luke Musgrave TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 24
–
GB 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:39 TD MIN (1:39) (Shotgun) 31-C.Akers up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 10:16 FG MIN (10:16) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 10 – GB 0
  • Q2 00:00 FG GB (:00) 17-A.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. MIN 10 – GB 3
  • Q3 09:28 TD MIN (9:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – GB 3
  • Q3 07:53 TD MIN (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – GB 3
  • Q3 02:42 TD GB (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – GB 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 34 for 16 yards (35-C.Ballentine).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%

    (7:11) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 23 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (10:16) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to MIN 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 25 for 4 yards (37-C.Valentine; 45-Er.Wilson).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:02) 14-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (11:06) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to GB 10 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Doubs (24-C.Bynum).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles up the middle to MIN 6 for 15 yards (22-H.Smith).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:53) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to GB 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for 19 yards (59-N.Vigil; 20-J.Ward). PENALTY on GB-45-Er.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-R.Doubs (5-M.Blackmon).