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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model