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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model