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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(7:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Doubs (24-C.Bynum).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model