4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-R.Doubs (5-M.Blackmon).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.97 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP