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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to MIN 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 25 for 4 yards (37-C.Valentine; 45-Er.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model