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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 23 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model