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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌨 Snow Spread -7.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

KC
69.6%
DEN
30.4%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.065 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.244 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
DEN 18
Projected margin: KC by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

KC

Nick Bolton LB Out Wrist

DEN

Brandon Johnson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 9
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:04 TD DEN (8:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 01:14 FG KC (1:14) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – DEN 7
  • Q2 11:57 TD DEN (11:57) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. KC 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 05:42 FG KC (5:42) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 6 – DEN 14
  • Q2 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 9 – DEN 14
  • Q4 10:40 TD DEN (10:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 9 – DEN 20
  • Q4 00:34 FG DEN (:34) 16-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. KC 9 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to KC 39 for 31 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (1:14) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to KC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 55%

    (8:35) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 40 for 0 yards (23-D.Tranquill). FUMBLES (23-D.Tranquill) [23-D.Tranquill], ball out of bounds at KC 40.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (5:42) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to KC 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman to KC 21 for 2 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%

    (6:40) 16-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Reid), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, recovered by DEN-16-W.Lutz at KC 26. 16-W.Lutz to KC 27 for -1 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 50%

    (2:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-1-J.McKinnon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 17 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 65%

    (11:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to KC 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, touched at KC 6, RECOVERED by DEN-41-D.Sanders at KC 10. Penalty on KC, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 76%

    (9:38) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 42 for 8 yards (6-P.Locke).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 85%

    (7:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 24-S.Moore.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to KC 36, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman to KC 31 for -5 yards (1-Tr.Smith).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (:34) 16-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.