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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model