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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-1-J.McKinnon.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP