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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 40

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 40 for 0 yards (23-D.Tranquill). FUMBLES (23-D.Tranquill) [23-D.Tranquill], ball out of bounds at KC 40.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model