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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 24-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model