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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 20

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 16-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Reid), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, recovered by DEN-16-W.Lutz at KC 26. 16-W.Lutz to KC 27 for -1 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.96 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model