Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 65

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(3:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to KC 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman to KC 21 for 2 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.64 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model