4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ARI
34.3%
SEA
65.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Geno Smith (SEA) -0.044 vs Joshua Dobbs (ARI) -0.129 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

ARI

Antonio Hamilton CB Out Groin
Jalen Thompson S Out Hamstring
Elijah Wilkinson G Out Neck
Kyler Murray QB Out Knee
Zach Pascal WR Questionable Neck
Budda Baker S Questionable Hamstring
Kei'Trel Clark CB Questionable Hamstring
Kevin Strong DT Questionable Calf
Garrett Williams CB Questionable Knee
Josh Woods LB Questionable Back

SEA

Zach Charbonnet RB Questionable Hamstring
Phil Haynes G Questionable Calf
Evan Brown C Questionable Hip
Jake Curhan T Questionable Ankle
DK Metcalf WR Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 10
–
SEA 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:53 TD SEA (4:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 02:01 FG ARI (2:01) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – SEA 7
  • Q2 09:18 TD ARI (9:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – SEA 7
  • Q2 04:47 TD SEA (4:47) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 19-J.Bobo (24-S.Thomas). Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Bobo for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – SEA 13
  • Q3 07:40 FG SEA (7:40) 5-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 10 – SEA 17
  • Q4 02:22 FG SEA (2:22) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 10 – SEA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%

    (12:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 29 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-87-G.Swaim. PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 29%

    (6:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to ARI 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 13 for 8 yards (44-N.Bellore, 58-D.Hall).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 39 for 5 yards (51-K.Barnes, 45-D.Gardeck).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SEA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 4 yards (32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), RECOVERED by ARI-45-D.Gardeck at SEA 32. 45-D.Gardeck to SEA 30 for 2 yards (13-C.Thompson).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%

    (2:01) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 27%

    (13:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:40) 5-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to ARI 34 for 32 yards (26-B.Price).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to SEA 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 30 for 6 yards (97-C.Thomas).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (11:09) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to ARI 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 33 for no gain (32-Je.Reed).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%

    (5:04) (Punt formation) 15-C.Tune pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 45 for 4 yards (30-M.Jackson, 59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (2:22) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 44 for -9 yards (90-Ja.Reed).