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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to ARI 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 13 for 8 yards (44-N.Bellore, 58-D.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model