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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(5:04) (Punt formation) 15-C.Tune pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 45 for 4 yards (30-M.Jackson, 59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP