4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to ARI 34 for 32 yards (26-B.Price).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.68 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP