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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 44 for -9 yards (90-Ja.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP