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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model