Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SEA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 4 yards (32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), RECOVERED by ARI-45-D.Gardeck at SEA 32. 45-D.Gardeck to SEA 30 for 2 yards (13-C.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.26 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -5.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model