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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 💨 Windy Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SEA
45.4%
CIN
54.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA on 6 more days rest than CIN
  • CIN offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) -0.010 vs Geno Smith (SEA) -0.019 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
CIN 23
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SEA

Coby Bryant CB Out Toe
Artie Burns CB Out Hamstring
Damien Lewis G Doubtful Ankle
Phil Haynes G Questionable Calf
Drew Lock QB Questionable Ankle

CIN

Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Out Knee
Josh Tupou DT Questionable Toe
Devin Harper LB Questionable Hamstring
Tee Higgins WR Questionable Ribs
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 13
–
CIN 17

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 TD SEA (8:40) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 02:25 TD CIN (2:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [10-U.Nwosu]. SEA 7 – CIN 6
  • Q2 12:27 TD CIN (12:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-33-J.Adams, Defensive Holding, declined. SEA 7 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:48 FG SEA (:48) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – CIN 14
  • Q3 02:27 FG SEA (2:27) 5-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 13 – CIN 14
  • Q4 11:52 FG CIN (11:52) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. SEA 13 – CIN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CIN 26, Center-41-C.Stoll. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 27 for 1 yard (59-J.Rhattigan, 31-D.Dallas).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (7:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to CIN 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-89-W.Dissly.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:39) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (:48) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:22) 10-B.Robbins punts 55 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 24 for 8 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:54) 10-B.Robbins punts 50 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 31-D.Dallas to CIN 43 for 23 yards (32-T.Williams, 84-M.Wilcox).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:27) 5-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:13) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 65%

    (11:52) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CIN 14, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:24) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to SEA 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CIN 14 for -8 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:48) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to SEA 37, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 40 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].